(WASHINGTON) — With several vulnerable Republican seats up for grabs in the U.S. Senate in the 2016 election, the two major parties are locked in a tight battle for control of Congress’ upper chamber this November.
ABC News ratings show control of the Senate will be a close contest in November: Republicans will likely finish with at lease 49 seats and Democrats, likely 47 seats — with the four remaining seats rated as pure toss-ups that could go either direction.
Many of the seats the GOP won during the 2010 Tea Party wave are now up for re-election, so holding onto its 54-seat Republican majority was always going to be a tall order for the GOP.
But with competitive seats in battleground states like Florida and Ohio leaning red and seats in states like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire remaining tight, control of the chamber is very much in question headed into the final weeks of the campaign.
Only one-third of the seats in the Senate come up for election every two years, so 30 Republican seats and 36 Democratic seats are safe from re-election in 2016.
Fourteen seats are rated Solid Republican vs. nine seats that are Solid Democratic. Another five seats are Lean Republican, two seats are Lean Democratic and four are pure toss-ups.
Solid Republican Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah.
Leans Republican Arizona, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio.
Tossup Indiana, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania.
Leans Democratic Illinois, Wisconsin.
Solid Democratic California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington.
U.S. House of Representatives
The race for control of the House of Representatives is less competitive as Republicans currently hold a 30-seat advantage, 246-186 with three vacancies, likely enough to hold onto the chamber into 2017 and shape legislative action regardless of the fate of the U.S. Senate or the White House.
ABC News gives an advantage to Democrats in seven seats currently held by Republicans and rates 16 additional races as a tossup. Even if Democrats were to sweep those races and protect the one Democratic seat that is rated as turning red, the party would still trail the GOP by seven seats.
206 seats are rated Solid Republican vs. 178 seats that are Solid Democratic. Another 22 seats are Lean Republican, 13 seats are Lean Democratic and 16 are pure toss-ups.
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